What conspiracy theories do you know of?

[kFoyauextlH]

[kFoyauextlH]

[kFoyauextlH]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

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The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term arose from a Latin expression which was based on the presumption that black swans did not exist. The expression was used in the original manner until around 1697 when Dutch mariners saw black swans living in Australia. After this, the term was reinterpreted to mean an unforeseen and consequential event.[1]
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Definitionally, Taleb considers black swans to be in the eye of the beholder and warns that objectively defining a black swan in a way "invariant in the eyes of all observers" would be erroneous. Taleb provides the example of the 9/11 attacks, which were a black swan for many, but not for its planners and perpetrators.[3][4]

Taleb's "black swan theory" (which differs from the earlier philosophical versions of the problem) refers only to statistically unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences.[5]: xxi  More technically, in the scientific monograph "Silent Risk",[6] Taleb mathematically defines the black swan problem as "stemming from the use of degenerate metaprobability".[6]
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_ ... babilities

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Taleb claims that his black swan is different from the earlier philosophical versions of the problem, specifically in epistemology (as associated with David Hume, John Stuart Mill, Karl Popper, and others), as it concerns a phenomenon with specific statistical properties which he calls, "the fourth quadrant".[19]

Taleb's problem is about epistemic limitations in some parts of the areas covered in decision making. These limitations are twofold: philosophical (mathematical) and empirical (human-known) epistemic biases. The philosophical problem is about the decrease in knowledge when it comes to rare events because these are not visible in past samples and therefore require a strong a priori (extrapolating) theory; accordingly, predictions of events depend more and more on theories when their probability is small. In the "fourth quadrant", knowledge is uncertain and consequences are large, requiring more robustness.[citation needed]

According to Taleb, thinkers who came before him who dealt with the notion of the improbable (such as Hume, Mill, and Popper) focused on the problem of induction in logic, specifically, that of drawing general conclusions from specific observations.[20] The central and unique attribute of Taleb's black swan event is that it is high-impact. His claim is that almost all consequential events in history come from the unexpected – yet humans later convince themselves that these events are explainable in hindsight.[citation needed]

One problem, labeled the ludic fallacy by Taleb, is the belief that the unstructured randomness found in life resembles the structured randomness found in games. This stems from the assumption that the unexpected may be predicted by extrapolating from variations in statistics based on past observations, especially when these statistics are presumed to represent samples from a normal distribution. These concerns often are highly relevant in financial markets, where major players sometimes assume normal distributions when using value at risk models, although market returns typically have fat tail distributions.[21]

Taleb said:[14]

I don't particularly care about the usual. If you want to get an idea of a friend's temperament, ethics, and personal elegance, you need to look at him under the tests of severe circumstances, not under the regular rosy glow of daily life. Can you assess the danger a criminal poses by examining only what he does on an ordinary day? Can we understand health without considering wild diseases and epidemics? Indeed the normal is often irrelevant. Almost everything in social life is produced by rare but consequential shocks and jumps; all the while almost everything studied about social life focuses on the 'normal,' particularly with 'bell curve' methods of inference that tell you close to nothing. Why? Because the bell curve ignores large deviations, cannot handle them, yet makes us confident that we have tamed uncertainty. Its nickname in this book is GIF, Great Intellectual Fraud.

More generally, decision theory, which is based on a fixed universe or a model of possible outcomes, ignores and minimizes the effect of events that are "outside the model". For instance, a simple model of daily stock market returns may include extreme moves such as Black Monday (1987), but might not model the breakdown of markets following the September 11, 2001 attacks. Consequently, the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq exchange remained closed till September 17, 2001, the most protracted shutdown since the Great Depression.[22] A fixed model considers the "known unknowns", but ignores the "unknown unknowns", made famous by a statement of Donald Rumsfeld.[23] The term "unknown unknowns" appeared in a 1982 New Yorker article on the aerospace industry, which cites the example of metal fatigue, the cause of crashes in Comet airliners in the 1950s.[24]

Deterministic chaotic dynamics reproducing the Black Swan Event have been researched in economics.[25] That is in agreement with Taleb's comment regarding some distributions which are not usable with precision, but which are more descriptive, such as the fractal, power law, or scalable distributions and that awareness of these might help to temper expectations.[26] Beyond this, Taleb emphasizes that many events simply are without precedent, undercutting the basis of this type of reasoning altogether.[citation needed]

Taleb also argues for the use of counterfactual reasoning when considering risk.[14]: p. xvii [27]
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michele_W ... _We_Ignore

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Gray rhinos
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Wucker introduced the term "gray rhino" at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland in January 2013.[16] Unlike highly improbable "black swans" popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s 2007 book, gray rhinos[17] are highly probable, high impact yet neglected threats. The concept is developed further in her 2016 book, The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore.[18]

The Chinese government embraced the term in a front-page editorial in the official newspaper, People's Daily, on July 17, 2017.[19] Coming right after the important National Financial Work Conference strategy session, which occurs every five years, the official use of the "gray rhino" concept was interpreted widely as signaling a concerted effort to tighten regulation and reduce financial risk.[20] In response, investors sold stocks perceived as risky, sending the Shenzhen small-cap stock index down 4.3% and the ChiNext tech index down 5.1%.[21]

The New York Times referenced gray rhinos and China's policy shift in a front-page article on July 23, 2017.[22]

The book has been translated into Hungarian,[23] Chinese[24] and Korean.[25]
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taleb_distribution

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_card_(foresight)

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In a view of the future, a wild card is a low-probability, large-effect event. This concept may be introduced into anticipatory decision-making activity in order to increase the ability of organizations and governments to adapt to surprises arising in turbulent (business) environments. Such sudden and unique incidents might constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system. Wild cards may or may not be announced by weak signals, which are incomplete and fragmented data from which foresight information might be inferred.[1][2][3]
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Another concept that comes close to the concept of wild cards and black swans is the tipping point of Malcolm Gladwell's The Tipping Point, which actually is a special form of a wild card that realizes itself by accumulation within a system that reveals itself in a drastic change of the system.[9]
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping_point_(sociology)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_s ... ransitions

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tail_risk

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat-tailed_distribution

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy-tailed_distribution

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law

[kFoyauextlH]

Oops, files all gone now. Lol, nice excuse. This worm in the video says he doesn't mind the perverted State T*rrorist government tracking him.

[kFoyauextlH]

Here is a properly paranoid style comment by someone:

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@jamesdelrogers542
2 hours ago
I just found out that the new phoenix police chief , That was sworn in Giordano , His name is italian but derives from and means the jordan river

How , very , very , very , very , very , very , very , very interesting , that is

I was attempting to cross the street walking to the grocery store yesterday and I saw a please cruiser , go by , Then it turned around , I was waiting to see if they would go , then they rolled up to

And said
Is your name danielle Badot
I said no and gave my name

He was talking sarcastically saying dude....

I reached my hand into my bag to get my wallet with my ID get out of the street .

So apparently when I looked this name up , it's not Someone they were looking for

It's the name of a fictional character in a t v series called the castle

This character is a cop who is murdered by other cops.I guess

In the name of the episode Season eight fifteen

Fidelis ad Morten

Apparently something they say in new york city at funerals , when cops are killed in the line of duty


They were acting like little psychos , I wanted to ask him if they had that little problem , but I bit my tongue .

Of course you know that they do

A little over ten years ago a phoenix cop allegedly took his own life with a shotgun behind the capitol building ,

I know people who knew him.You couldn't get this 1 to do anything wrong .

Their property. Investors from backeast , The other crooked cops are taking money from them
Being hired for private security work and who knows what else .

And the probability that he put the shotgun into his own head is probably similar to the probability of kurt cobain , having put the shotgun into his head .

God i'm getting too old for this
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