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Self diagnosis is extremely inaccurate: Only 5-6% of people who score positive on autism questionnaires are actually autistic.
Okay, so this is something I've noticed/known for awhile, but I realise I've never seen anyone post these numbers before. I've included the studies and my working below, but if that's boring to you then the takeaway is this:
If you've taken the autism questionnaires and gotten a positive result, then there's only a 5-6% chance that you are autistic.
In a group of people, if everyone were to take the questionnaire, the number of people falsely diagnosed would outnumber the number of people correctly diagnosed 19 to 1.
EDIT: If you suspect that you have ASD, and you scored high on these tests, please discuss these results with a professional. Even if you don't have the time or resources to go all the way through with a medical autism diagnosis, there's a high chance that there's something going on. It's just statistically unlikely for it to be ASD: and if it isn't, that's good. Social Anxiety, for example, causes a lot of false positives and is a lot more treatable than ASD.
Simply put, about 1 in 31 people have ASD (that's about 3% of the population), and based off of study (1) below, about 80% of autistic people were correctly identified using the RAADS-R, AQ-28 and AQ-10. In the same study, only 50% of people without autism were correctly identified as allistic. What does that mean?
Say you take a group of 10,000 people and you make them all take the test. About 323 of them will be autistic. This means that the results would be:
About 4839 people will be correctly not identified as autistic
About 4839 people will also be incorrectly identified as autistic
258 people will be correctly identified as autistic
64 autistic people will be missed.
This means that the likelihood of having autism, given you have filled out those questionnaires and gotten back a positive, is 258/(4839+258)=5.06%.
I put a second study (2) with slightly different numbers, and based off of that, using just the AQ, the probability that you are autistic because you got a high score on the AQ is 4.78%. Using the stricter cutoff point, the probability is 6.92%.
Disclaimer: This is assuming that everyone takes the autism questionnaire, I do think that people with autism are more likely to suspect they have autism than allistic people, but I don't know of any research proving that. Also, it would be very very hard to get those numbers up to the point where self-diagnosis is reliable.
Also: If you think I've done something wrong or have research which would make my numbers more accurate then please do share! I am open to all perspectives
Sources:
(1) Sizoo BB, Horwitz EH, Teunisse JP, Kan CC, Vissers C, Forceville E, Van Voorst A, Geurts HM. Predictive validity of self-report questionnaires in the assessment of autism spectrum disorders in adults. Autism. 2015 Oct;19(7):842-9. doi: 10.1177/1362361315589869. Epub 2015 Jun 18. PMID: 26088060.
(2) Bezemer, M.L., Blijd-Hoogewys, E.M.A. & Meek-Heekelaar, M. The Predictive Value of the AQ and the SRS-A in the Diagnosis of ASD in Adults in Clinical Practice. J Autism Dev Disord 51, 2402–2415 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10803-020-04699-7
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So, I see a lot of people who I think might just be people with Borderline Perdonality Disorder who try to claim lots of things and then attack people if questioned or denied. I, in lime with my general skepticism about a lot of things that are generally accepted, think there are a lot of people being diagnosed wrongly and diagnosing themselves or identifying as certain things which they should really fail to meet the standards for wothout rendering the terms and distinctions meaningless. They also cause problems by being so productive and capable in every way that they confuse the meaning and ideas related to the issues, and they potentially take resources from prople who would be in greater need of such.
I see highly efficient and productive and capable people claiming all kinds of disabilities that they pretty clearly don't have as evidenced by all that they very apparently excel at and even showcase about themselves and their outstanding abilities, leaving people with real serious disabilities in the dust, while these, frauds and charlatans as far as I'm concerned, steal the limelight and misrepresent serious issues. Maybe they think it is for real, but most would probably agree that anyone faking or claiming a disability where they are so much better snd capable at everything than even a normal person but especially a much more severely disabled person would be a bit of an annoying b*stard, and especially if they really know and believe they are faking it, but they are completrly inattentive to the real struggling people too in do many cases of people trying to benefit or profit from or have different standards due to various disability claims. There have been many fraudsters "outted" on social media and the whole thing is disgusting and shows that there may have been some value in stagmatizing these things do that predatory people eouldn't try to link something to themselves that would detract from their reputation rather than enhance it or that they place themselves in a category where they can basically wipe the floor with their "competition", since they are competing against people who might have much more severe issues. They excuse their apparent super star powers with a vast spectrum that includes everything from people with no apparent disability whatdoever, to the point of pushing people with serious issues far off the edges as the "rare" versions, when those are probably the only worthehile and real versions. Pharmaceutical companies profit from diagnosing domekne with something requiring this or that medication too, it all seems like a lot of bullsh*t p shoveled onto people, and the worst types of humans trying to game systems and take advantage of others, stepping on top of those who can barely fend for themselves or support themselves.
People make it a sensitive and offensive issue also to pick fights, others make it an excuse for what should be considered crimes.
I have my doubts anyway about people who seem to have other issues if anything bragging about disabilities they supposedly have.
I don't mean to offend anyone by this, it is just when I see people who seem to have no issue with practically anything who are at the top of their game and way beyond average people in every regard claiming that they have issues they so clearly don't have which is made obvious by all the things they show themselves excelling at, I just hate a world where we are forced to just nod our heads in the affirmative to every sham and scam and lie right before our eyes, h'yup, it is just as the latest crook insists, the latest person putting a gun to our head and saying "say it!", whatever new lie the in actuality bullies want us to pronounce.